Whack-A-Mayor

Charleston will face its most important mayoral election in 40 years, when Mayor Joseph P. Riley Jr. steps down next year. Could Charleston’s next mayor be from West Ashley?
With as many as seven homegrown mayoral candidates having announced or waiting in the wings, it looks like some of the most fertile soil for mayoral candidates is found on our side of the Ashley River.
Currently, several election-watchers see West Ashley’s state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis and downtown Charleston City Councilman Mike Seekings as the frontrunners in the nonpartisan race.
Stavrinakis, who hasn’t officially declared, this week said he was focused on his work in Columbia as the legislative session there came to a close, but refused to rule out a run for mayor.
Recently, local commercial realtor and former Riley administration member John Tecklenburg officially announced his candidacy, following on the heels of the declaration of City Councilman Dean Riegel, who represents West Ashley.
Riegel’s colleague on City Council, Aubry Alexander, who also represents West Ashley may be mulling a candidacy himself. Alexander said he has been meeting and speaking with “some campaign guys.”
Former City Councilman and current state Rep. Wendell Gilliard, who represents the area in Columbia, said Friday he was going to run but wasn’t sure when he’d officially announce his candidacy. “I’m not concentrating on an exact date — it’s still not until next year.”
Add to the pile are rumored runs by West Ashley County Councilperson Colleen Condon, who has been sniffing around like she’s seriously considering her next political move, and one by former City Councilman Paul Tinkler, who couldn’t be reached for comment, but did years ago march with Riley to Columbia to protest the flying of the Confederate flag on Statehouse grounds.
Stavrinakis, Tecklenburg, Riegel, Tinkler, Alexander, Gilliard, Condon.
That’s a bumper crop of possible West Ashley candidates. Why does West Ashley appear to be such fertile soil for mayoral candidates?
Gilliard said that when a well-known incumbent, like Riley, retires after 40 years in office, “ultimately you are going to have a lot of people waiting in the wings” for his job, “just by virtue of the number of years” no one else could really challenge him.
Alexander said that the political power ensconced on the other sides of the Ashley and Cooper rivers has outgrown the number of votes living on the peninsula, opening the door for a “suburb” candidate to have a very realistic chance of winning.
“You figure that there are six City Council districts representing this side of the Ashley, and one for Daniel Island, and if each district is roughly 10,000 residents” then the power shift may have slid further off the peninsula, according to Alexander.
Stavrinakis said roughly 60 percent of the city’s voters are off of the peninsula, even though many of their financial interests still lie on it.
Tecklenburg, who recently returned to West Ashley, said that there should be shared focus on both peninsular and suburban needs, a position echoed by many of those interviewed for this article.
So, what’s it going to take for a West Ashley boy or girl, to win the mayor’s office?
Money and shrewd politicking, most agree.
“Consider that City Councilman Dudley Gregorie spent roughly $250,000 last time in an unsuccessful bid against Mayor Riley,” said Alexander. “Then whoever wins this next time may have to raise and spend between $500,000 and $1 million.”
“Charleston is going to have the best mayor money can buy,” chuckled Alexander.
Stavrinakis said that while those amounts on their face are quite large, they are ‘”reasonable” estimates since the plethora of candidates virtually ensures no one candidate will carry a majority November next.
And that will necessitate a run-off, and a de facto second campaign and a very real second round of fund-raising. All the candidates agree there isn’t enough money to go around to fund their expected number of campaigns.
Candidates loyal to the “Riley machine” better brush off their geometry lessons, as they try to triangulate winning his public favor and calling on the same potential donors.
And if a rumored run from a former Riley lieutenant, David Agnew, currently deputy assistant to President Obama and director of intergovernmental affairs in the White House, is a go, then the fund-raising math gets even harder for candidates like Tecklenburg and potential candidates like Tinkler.
But with a year to go, there are several more candidates from other parts of town. One potential downtown candidate shanghaied for an interview Friday night while shopping at the West Ashley Harris Teeter admitted, under promises of anonymity, that he’d already paid for a poll to be taken to help guide his decision.
A lot can happen between today and November 2015. And while all roads in this region may lead to Charleston, at least half of them have to go through West Ashley first. Maybe even the road leading to the mayor’s office.