How the West Is Won

There’s a high probability that Charleston’s next mayor will hail from West Ashley, judging from the preponderance of candidates that filed for the race last week.
State Rep. Leon Stavrinakis, local businessman John Tecklenburg, attorney and former City Councilman Paul Tinkler, and non-profit leader Ginny Deerin all list West Ashley as their home address.
Only current City Councilman William Dudley Gregorie is from “out of” West Ashley, representing downtown.
But, the deadline to file for the November election to replace 40-year mayoral veteran Joseph P. Riley Jr. was Monday, Aug. 17 (after press time). So more rumored candidates may come out of the woodwork.
Regardless, West Ashley looks to benefit from the election, as it is now home to close to 60,000 city residents, giving it a numerical advantage on City Council and potentially in the voting booth.
Because of the number of candidates, it is likely that the race will result in a run-off, with not one candidate capable of wining more than 50 percent of the vote. That could provide an additional boost to West Ashley’s political power.
And the six city councilmen representing pieces of West Ashley would be in a strong position to broker deals between the election and the runoff to campaign for one candidate or another.
So that could mean that whoever survives the original election might need to cut West Ashley-friendly deals in exchange for political support from Council.
Leading up to the home stretch of this election, Deerin continues to place a large emphasis on West Ashley. Last week at a St. Andrews Rotary Club meeting she released a West Ashley specific platform, highlighting nine points of focus, addressing transportation concerns and revitalization of the Sam Rittenberg Boulevard corridor.
But what will it take to win over the voters in the city’s largest concentration of voters?
Show Me the Money
It’s said in political circles that good candidates raise money, because on one hand they have ideas and charisma others will put their money behind; and on the other hand, they can screw up the courage to ask for it.
If that’s true, then the three front-runners in the non-partisan race have been Stavrinakis, Tecklenburg, and Deerin, all of whom are sitting on relatively impressive war chests of donations.
As of the July 10
Reporting Deadline:
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Stavrinakis had raised close to a total of $510,000, with $200,000 of it raised in the past financial quarter, or three months.
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Deerin had raised $476,000, and $258,000, respectively.
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Tecklenburg $437,000 and $171,000.
Tinkler, whose daughter turned heads last year by winning a seat in the S.C. House, had brought in $238,000, but only $30 over the previous three months. Gregorie was trailing the others with only $64,000 and $27,000 raised last quarter.
The Dark Horse
But don’t count out Gregorie too quickly, according to Gibbs Knotts, who chairs the Political Science Department at the College of Charleston.
“So many West Ashley candidates could split the support in a ‘friends and neighbors’ campaign,” Knotts said, allowing Gregorie to slip into the runoff.
Additionally, in the wake of the shooting at the downtown Emanuel AME Church, where Gregorie is a member of the leadership, voters may decide it’s time Charleston had a black mayor.
In all, Knots sees a definite political “pendulum swing” away from the peninsula and toward the populous West Ashley suburb.
While second and third homes now dot the peninsula, Gregorie’s base could be slipping, said Knotts. But the more West Ashley candidates could make Gregorie the merrier.
Conventional Wisdom
The public perception of candidates fighting for unclaimed constituencies to ensure political victory is largely a fiction. Candidates win races by identifying their supporters, stacking their votes into larger piles, and getting their supporters excited enough to go to the poles.
Stavrinakis has deep ties to the local business community, and by extension possibly more conservative voters. Tecklenburg has the Riley imprint, and while the mayor has stayed out of selecting his successor, could be a potent force in a runoff. And Deerin, who has strong ties to the education community, has surprised many with her ability to raise money.
If it does come down to a runoff involving any or all of those three candidates, then Gregorie may have played the spoiler.
But a lot can happen between now and November. And regardless of what does happen, West Ashley should come out the winner.